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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
375
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+82% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
375 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
7,858
Normalized
807
7,858
Prepared
807
377
Aligned
375
375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
72.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
375
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
375 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
434
A: 432 / B: 2
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,858 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3141
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-dexbzus_monthly_5y