SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Chevron is an integrated energy company with exploration, production, and refining operations worldwide. It is the second-largest oil company in the United States with 2025 worldwide net oil-equivalent production of 3.7 million barrels per day, including 8.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and 2.3 million barrels of liquids per day. Production takes place in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company's refining networks arelocated in the United States and Asia, with a total worldwide refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day at year-end 2025. Net proved reserves at year-end 2025 stood at 10.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, consist
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
Vanguard Total Bond Market
BND
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+33%) is 2.8σ from the long-run average of -76% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+12%) and fall (+22%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,255 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Vanguard Total Bond Market at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-76%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-78% → -73%
Likely range
R²
57.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
47.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,255
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,255 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,255
Normalized
1,255
1,255
Prepared
1,255
1,255
Aligned
1,255
1,255
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
139 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Chevron Corporation
CVX
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Vanguard Total Bond Market
BND
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
51
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1651
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
100.1835
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: stock-bnd_stock-cvx_5y
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Strongest positive