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Correlation
of % moves
-13%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-33
24
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
BNB moves ~2 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch BNB for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → +30%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
168
2,890
Normalized
168
2,890
Prepared
25
2,890
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+2 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+58%
+45% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 2 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does BNB today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 2 weeks from now?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 weeks
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,867
A: 1 / B: 2866
Series A
BNB
BNB
Crypto · 168 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,890 raw → 2,890 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0473
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0045
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 21 hours ago · ID: crypto-bnb_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y