SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+73%) is 2.6σ from the long-run average of -84% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before BK
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on BK.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-6%) and fall (+18%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-90%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Bank of New York Mellon Corporation today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-84%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-87% → -80%
Likely range
R²
70.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
BK
Market cap 92.3B · 48,100 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-28822.3797
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9648226.4115
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-bk_5y