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Correlation
of % moves
-41%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
665
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-47% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
665 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
9,268
666
Normalized
9,268
666
Prepared
9,268
666
Aligned
665
665
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
664 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,604
A: 8603 / B: 1
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,268 raw → 9,268 prepared
Series B
BITB
Stock · 666 raw → 666 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1505
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-vixcls-vs-stock-bitb-daily