Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of % moves
+48%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
30
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Core CPI moves ~9 months before BITB
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on BITB.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+14% → +73%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
30 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
834
666
Normalized
834
666
Prepared
834
33
Aligned
30
30
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
28
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+31% stronger than no-shift baseline
BITB shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with BITB 9 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+16%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
807
A: 804 / B: 3
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 834 raw → 834 prepared
Series B
BITB
Stock · 666 raw → 33 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
59.0084
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1209
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-bitb_monthly_5y