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BG vs FRetail SalesBunge Global SA (BG) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
60
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
BG moves ~5 months before Retail Sales
Watch BG for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+5% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
412
Normalized
1,254
412
Prepared
61
412
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bunge Global SA (BG) today line up with Retail Sales 5 months from now?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
353
A: 1 / B: 352
Series A
Bunge Global SA (BG)
BG
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0433
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0035
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-bg_monthly_5y