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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move opposite each other about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~2 months before BCH
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on BCH.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → +20%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
999
Normalized
730
999
Prepared
25
999
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+39% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin Cash (BCH) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 2 months ago?"
20 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-42%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
978
A: 2 / B: 976
Series A
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
BCH
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0111
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0010
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-bch_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y