SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+80%) is 2.7σ from the long-run average of -76% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield moves ~6 weeks before M2
Watch ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield for an early read on M2.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (+3%) vs when both rise (+23%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 shifted 6 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with M2 6 weeks from now?"
148 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 weeks
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-76%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-82% → -68%
Likely range
R²
57.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
154
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
154 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
786
2,362
Normalized
786
2,362
Prepared
157
2,362
Aligned
154
154
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,211
A: 3 / B: 2208
Series A
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
WM2NS
FRED · 2,362 raw → 2,362 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-681.2625
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
26517.8438
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-wm2ns_5y