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Correlation
of values
-81%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~66% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-81%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
785
Normalized
940
785
Prepared
940
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
65.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+74%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
907
A: 905 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.1288
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16.0657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-unrate_monthly_5y