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Correlation
of values
+51%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
747
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
5,862
Normalized
785
5,862
Prepared
785
5,862
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
92 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,153
A: 38 / B: 5115
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0681
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7751
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y