Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-30
749
These move opposite each other about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
749 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,085
786
Normalized
11,085
786
Prepared
11,085
786
Aligned
749
749
Invalid removed
R²(i)
43.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
749
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
95 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
61 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,373
A: 10336 / B: 37
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 11,085 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
33.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6260
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.0751
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-t10y3m_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.