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Correlation
of values
-81%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~65% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-81%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
785
Normalized
808
785
Prepared
808
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
64.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield 18 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+44%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 773 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1916
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
31.3225
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y