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Correlation
of values
-81%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~65% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-81%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
785
Normalized
809
785
Prepared
809
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
65%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
776
A: 774 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
19.1513
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-pce_monthly_5y