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Correlation
of values
+86%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
155
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~74% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+86%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +89%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
2,904
Normalized
785
2,904
Prepared
157
2,904
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
R²(i)
74%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
155 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,751
A: 2 / B: 2749
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 2,904 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0988
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.1704
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-nfci_weekly_5y