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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
156
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+85% → +91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
2,891
Normalized
785
2,891
Prepared
157
2,891
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
78.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
60 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,736
A: 1 / B: 2735
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 2,891 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1062
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2136
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-nfci_weekly_5y