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Correlation
of values
+82%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
157
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+82%
Based on values
95% CI
+76% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
157 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,880
785
Normalized
2,880
785
Prepared
2,880
157
Aligned
157
157
Invalid removed
R²(i)
67.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
157
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
157 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+44%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
51 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,723
A: 2723 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 2,880 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.5169
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.7789
Linear regression intercept.
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