Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
156
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
1,819
Normalized
785
1,819
Prepared
157
1,819
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
77%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
51 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,664
A: 1 / B: 1663
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,819 raw → 1,819 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5168
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1525
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y