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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield moves ~18 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-77% → -32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
811
Normalized
785
811
Prepared
36
811
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-82%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with M1 Money Supply 18 months from now?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 1 / B: 776
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 36 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-549.4067
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
22608.0020
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y