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Correlation
of values
-14%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
155
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-14%
Based on values
95% CI
-30% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,112
785
Normalized
3,112
785
Prepared
3,112
157
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield 12 weeks from now?"
143 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-14%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
79 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,959
A: 2957 / B: 2
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.8983
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-icsa_weekly_5y