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Correlation
of values
+82%
In sync
of periods
66%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
747
These move in the same direction about 66% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~67% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+82%
Based on values
95% CI
+79% → +84%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,563
785
Normalized
12,563
785
Prepared
12,563
785
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
67%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+39%
88 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+53%
89 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,854
A: 11816 / B: 38
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,563 raw → 12,563 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0985
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7135
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-dgs2_daily_5y