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Correlation
of values
+34%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
747
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,861
785
Normalized
5,861
785
Prepared
5,861
785
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+72%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,152
A: 5114 / B: 38
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,861 raw → 5,861 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2299
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.9638
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-dfii10_daily_5y