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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
746
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
746 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
13,962
Normalized
785
13,962
Prepared
785
13,962
Aligned
746
746
Invalid removed
R²(i)
52%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
746
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
746 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
161 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,255
A: 39 / B: 13216
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
GBP/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSUK
FRED · 13,962 raw → 13,962 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0500
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-dexusuk_daily_5y