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Correlation
of values
-31%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on values
95% CI
-37% → -24%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,878
Normalized
786
13,878
Prepared
786
13,878
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
172 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,174
A: 41 / B: 13133
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,878 raw → 13,878 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0099
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7325
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-dexusal_daily_5y