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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,879
Normalized
786
13,879
Prepared
786
13,879
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
94 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,175
A: 41 / B: 13134
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 13,879 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.7702
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
170.7636
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-dexjpus_daily_5y