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Correlation
of values
-75%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
34
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~57% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index moves ~4 months before ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Watch Case-Shiller Home Price Index for an early read on ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-75%
Based on values
95% CI
-87% → -56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
471
Normalized
785
471
Prepared
37
471
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
R²(i)
56.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4 months ago?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+49%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
440
A: 3 / B: 437
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 471 raw → 471 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-7.9923
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
381.4590
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y