Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
155
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~33% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~10 weeks before ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,099
Normalized
785
3,099
Prepared
157
3,099
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
R²(i)
32.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-10 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 10 weeks later. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 10 weeks ago?"
145 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 weeks
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,946
A: 2 / B: 2944
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-47071.3560
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2195118.7676
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y