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Correlation
of values
-52%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-25
154
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~10 weeks before ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
154 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,103
Normalized
785
3,103
Prepared
157
3,103
Aligned
154
154
Invalid removed
27%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
154
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-10 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-70%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 10 weeks later. Reads: "Does ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 10 weeks ago?"
144 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 weeks
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,952
A: 3 / B: 2949
Series A
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,103 raw → 3,103 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-43332.1197
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2166901.5759
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y