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Correlation
of values
+74%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
156
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+74%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
1,229
Normalized
785
1,229
Prepared
157
1,229
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
54%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+74%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
79 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,074
A: 1 / B: 1073
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 1,229 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
843581.5827
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4382880.5808
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-walcl_weekly_5y