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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
35
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
HY Bond Spread moves ~7 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-77% → -32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
391
Normalized
785
391
Prepared
37
391
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 7 months from now?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
358
A: 2 / B: 356
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 391 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5415
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.4278
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y