Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~7 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -47%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
388
Normalized
785
388
Prepared
37
388
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
48.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 7 months from now?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
355
A: 2 / B: 353
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6700
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.8260
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y