Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+32%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
747
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
5,862
Normalized
785
5,862
Prepared
785
5,862
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+37%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 6 days from now?"
741 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,153
A: 38 / B: 5115
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0632
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0712
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y