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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
747
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
11,129
Normalized
785
11,129
Prepared
785
11,129
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
36%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
104 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,420
A: 38 / B: 10382
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,129 raw → 11,129 prepared
Sign agreement
39.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9993
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.8043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y