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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
747
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~40% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-68% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
11,090
Normalized
784
11,090
Prepared
784
11,090
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
40.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,380
A: 37 / B: 10343
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,090 raw → 11,090 prepared
Sign agreement
34.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9368
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5618
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y