Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
747
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~33% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
-62% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
11,169
Normalized
785
11,169
Prepared
785
11,169
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
33%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-57%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-57%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,460
A: 38 / B: 10422
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,169 raw → 11,169 prepared
Sign agreement
45.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9980
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.8580
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y