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Correlation
of values
+28%
In sync
of periods
72%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
155
These move in the same direction about 72% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~12 weeks before HY Bond Spread
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on HY Bond Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
72%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
1,696
Normalized
785
1,696
Prepared
157
1,696
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-35%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 12 weeks ago?"
143 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+71%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,543
A: 2 / B: 1541
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 1,696 prepared
Sign agreement
1.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.0564
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y