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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
746
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~33% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
746 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
2,061
Normalized
785
2,061
Prepared
785
2,061
Aligned
746
746
Invalid removed
33%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
746
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
746 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,354
A: 39 / B: 1315
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,061 raw → 2,061 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
36
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8301
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.9573
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-sofr_daily_5y