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Correlation
of values
+75%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
746
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+75%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +78%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
746 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
3,321
Normalized
785
3,321
Prepared
785
3,321
Aligned
746
746
Invalid removed
R²(i)
57%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
746
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+75%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
746 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 39 / B: 2575
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,321 raw → 3,321 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
597.0134
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1591.2630
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-rrpontsyd_daily_5y