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Correlation
of values
+45%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Building Permits moves ~1 month before HY Bond Spread
Watch Building Permits for an early read on HY Bond Spread.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+45%
Based on values
95% CI
+14% → +68%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
785
Normalized
796
785
Prepared
796
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
20.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
HY Bond Spread shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with HY Bond Spread 1 month from now?"
34 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
763
A: 761 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0036
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.0267
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-permit_monthly_5y