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Correlation
of values
-80%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
36
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-89% → -64%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
785
Normalized
1,049
785
Prepared
1,049
37
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
64.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-80%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
36 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,014
A: 1013 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
72.6217
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-payems_monthly_5y