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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
156
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,884
785
Normalized
2,884
785
Prepared
2,884
157
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
35%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+59%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
71 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,729
A: 2728 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 2,884 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.4809
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y