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Correlation
of values
+57%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
156
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before HY Bond Spread
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on HY Bond Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +66%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,892
785
Normalized
2,892
785
Prepared
2,892
157
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
32%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
HY Bond Spread shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with HY Bond Spread 12 weeks from now?"
144 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
72 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,737
A: 2736 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,892 raw → 2,892 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6517
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2027
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y