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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
157
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
+48% → +68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
157 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
1,815
Normalized
785
1,815
Prepared
157
1,815
Aligned
157
157
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
157
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+59%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
157 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+26%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,658
A: 0 / B: 1658
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4914
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.3494
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y