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Correlation
of values
+12%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
156
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~12 weeks before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+12%
Based on values
95% CI
-4% → +27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,100
785
Normalized
3,100
785
Prepared
3,100
157
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-20%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
HY Bond Spread shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with HY Bond Spread 12 weeks ago?"
144 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-30%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
86 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,945
A: 2944 / B: 1
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 3,100 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.2779
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-icsa_weekly_5y