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Correlation
of values
+61%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
36
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~18 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
73%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+61%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +78%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
866
785
Normalized
866
785
Prepared
866
36
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
37%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+78%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
HY Bond Spread shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with HY Bond Spread 18 months ago?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+55%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
830
A: 830 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 36 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3718
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4566
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y