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Correlation
of values
-19%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before US Dollar Index
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on values
95% CI
-26% → -12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
5,107
Normalized
786
5,107
Prepared
786
5,107
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-25%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with US Dollar Index 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
94 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
80 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,403
A: 41 / B: 4362
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 5,107 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
34
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0732
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
125.3611
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dtwexbgs_daily_5y