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Correlation
of values
+67%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
747
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+67%
Based on values
95% CI
+62% → +70%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
16,092
Normalized
785
16,092
Prepared
785
16,092
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
44.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
15,383
A: 38 / B: 15345
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,092 raw → 16,092 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
34
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9238
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dgs1_daily_5y