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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-46% → -33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
6,606
Normalized
786
6,606
Prepared
786
6,606
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+3%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,902
A: 41 / B: 5861
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 6,606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-106.9215
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
466.3060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexvzus_daily_5y