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Correlation
of values
+34%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,869
Normalized
786
13,869
Prepared
786
13,869
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
151 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,165
A: 41 / B: 13124
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 13,869 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0122
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5557
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexusnz_daily_5y