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Correlation
of values
-31%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
6,864
Normalized
786
6,864
Prepared
786
6,864
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,160
A: 41 / B: 6119
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 6,864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0285
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2026
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexuseu_daily_5y