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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
745
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
11,660
Normalized
785
11,660
Prepared
785
11,660
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+42%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
96 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,955
A: 40 / B: 10915
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,660 raw → 11,660 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
54
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1646
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14.1843
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexsfus_daily_5y