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Correlation
of values
+25%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on values
95% CI
+18% → +32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,884
Normalized
786
13,884
Prepared
786
13,884
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+64%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,180
A: 41 / B: 13139
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 13,884 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2583
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.6288
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexnous_daily_5y