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Correlation
of values
-55%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on values
95% CI
-60% → -50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,879
Normalized
786
13,879
Prepared
786
13,879
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,175
A: 41 / B: 13134
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 13,879 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.2279
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
170.6613
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexjpus_daily_5y