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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-53% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,891
Normalized
786
13,891
Prepared
786
13,891
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-54%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
86 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,187
A: 41 / B: 13146
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0273
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4640
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexcaus_daily_5y