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Correlation
of values
-36%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
745
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
13,963
Normalized
785
13,963
Prepared
785
13,963
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,258
A: 40 / B: 13218
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,963 raw → 13,963 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0222
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4505
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-dexcaus_daily_5y