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Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
34
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
HY Bond Spread moves ~4 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
471
Normalized
785
471
Prepared
37
471
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
R²(i)
46.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4 months from now?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+60%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
440
A: 3 / B: 437
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 471 raw → 471 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10.7098
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
357.3896
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y