Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
34
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
HY Bond Spread moves ~4 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
472
Normalized
785
472
Prepared
37
472
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
41%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-77%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does HY Bond Spread today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4 months from now?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
441
A: 3 / B: 438
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10.5058
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
357.0258
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y