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Correlation
of values
-26%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-33
154
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
154 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,111
Normalized
785
3,111
Prepared
157
3,111
Aligned
154
154
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
154
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-26%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
154 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
75 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,960
A: 3 / B: 2957
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,111 raw → 3,111 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-34319.2544
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1957298.5436
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y